Forecast
Project the upcoming adjustment as a range, not a single guess, using an ensemble of methods. Enough for finance to set a number aside before the reset.
Forecasting projects the next contract price adjustment as a range, so finance can set money aside before the reset. Escalake runs an ensemble of methods over each index component, combines them into a central estimate and a confidence band, and lets you override a component's assumed path to test a scenario such as a tariff or a wage settlement. A forecast is never an agreed adjustment: the invoice figure always comes from confirmed data and both signatures on the confirmation step.
Next adjustment · 2024-Q4 · projection
Escalake runs several forecasting methods over each component series and combines them. The output is a central estimate and a confidence interval, so a budget can carry the uncertainty rather than hide it.
Per-component projection · 2024-Q4
Override a component's assumed path to test a scenario. A tariff on steel, a wage settlement, a currency move. The projected adjustment and its dollar impact update against the contract's exposed value.
Scenario · steel +10% shock
One thing to be clear about
A forecast is not an agreed adjustment. The number that goes on an invoice always comes from confirmed data and both signatures. Forecasting is for planning, and it is labelled that way everywhere it appears.
It runs several forecasting methods over each index component in the formula, then combines them into one projection. The output is a central estimate (P50) and a confidence interval, for example plus 3.9 percent with an 80 percent band of plus 2.4 to plus 5.6 percent.
Because a single number implies a certainty that does not exist before the data is published. A band lets a budget carry the uncertainty openly, so finance reserves against the top of the range rather than being surprised by it.
Yes. Override a component's assumed path and the projected adjustment updates, along with its dollar impact against the contract's exposed value. This lets you price a steel tariff, a currency move, or a wage settlement before it flows through the index.
No. A forecast is for planning only and is labelled that way everywhere it appears. The number that goes on an invoice always comes from confirmed official data and both parties' signatures.
Plan for the number. Do not pretend to know it.
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